COGITO ERGO SUM

:: Lipika's ( Stop And Reverse )::
NIFTY(S.A.R.) & BANKNIFTY(S.A.R)

Tuesday, December 1, 2009

trading methods

Overbought:
A stock or commodity market condition where there has been significant trading bidding up prices to higher levels, levels which seem overextended

In technical analysis, it is a market in which the volume of buying that has occurred is greater than the fundamentals justify

A technical opinion that the market price has risen too steeply and too fast in relation to underlying fundamental factors

A technical condition that occurs when prices are considered too high and susceptible to a decline. Overbought conditions can be classified by analyzing the chart pattern or with indicators such as the Stochastic Oscillator and Relative Strength Index (RSI). A sharp advance from $15 to $30 in 2 weeks might lead a technician to believe that a security is overbought. Or, a security is sometimes considered overbought when the Stochastic Oscillator exceeds 80 and when the Relative Strength Index (RSI) exceeds 70. It is important to keep in mind that overbought is not necessarily the same as being bearish. It merely infers that the stock has risen too far too fast and might be due for a pullback.

A term used to describe a market or a stock that has appreciated so rapidly and has generated such excessively bullish sentiment that a near-term decline is highly likely

A physical asset or futures contract whose prices have been pushed up to a level that some believe is unrealistically high and cannot be sustained ie. when the speculative long interest has rapidly increased and the speculative short interest is sharply reduced




Oversold:

A term used to describe a technical opinion of a market has declined too steeply and too fast in relation to underlying fundamental factors

An analytical term for a stock that is underpriced

a condition of the marked after an abrupt recession. In this situation a correction rise is possible

A technical condition that occurs when prices are considered too low and ripe for a rally. Oversold conditions can be classified by analyzing the chart pattern or with indicators such as the Stochastic Oscillator and Relative Strength Index (RSI). A sharp decline from 30 to 15 in 2 weeks might lead a technician to believe that a security is oversold. Or, a security is sometimes considered oversold when the Stochastic Oscillator is less than 20 and when the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is less than 30. It is important to keep in mind that oversold is not necessarily the same as being bullish. It merely infers that the security has fallen too far too fast and may be due for a reaction rally.

The reverse of overbought. A single security or a market which, it is believed, has declined to an unreasonable level

A market which has fallen too far and too fast under excessive selling pressure and is expected to move back to a higher, more neutral level

Used in the context of general equities. Technically too low in price, and hence a technical correction is expected. Antithesis of overbought

A physical asset or futures contract whose prices have been pushed down to a level that some believe is unrealistically low and cannot be sustained ie. when the speculative long interest has been drastically diminished and the speculative short interest increases.

An equity (or market) that has gone down to which its valuation seems to support buying of the stock.



Swing Trading:

Opposite of daytrading. Swing Traders speculate longer term on prices of stocks, futures, etc.

This term is typically used to imply a style where one takes a position for several days to a few weeks. A swing trade might be completed in less than a week, or if the stock consolidates it might take several weeks. While a swing trader will watch the market very closely, this style does not require the trader to be in front a computer screen while the market is open. A swing trader will typically aim for a 10-15% profit on all trades.

Swing trading is commonly defined as a stock, index, or commodities trading practice whereby the instrument is bought or sold at or near the end of an up or down price swing caused by daily or weekly price volatility. A swing trade position is typically open longer than a day, but shorter than trend following trades or buy and hold investment strategies. Swing traders engage in prospecting changes in an instrument's price caused by oscillations between its price being bid up by optimism and alternatively being bid down by pessimism over a period of a few days, weeks, or months. Profits can be sought by engaging in either Long or Short trading

Identifying whether a market is currently trending higher or lower, or trading sideways and when this will change is a challenge for many swing trading and long-term trend following trading strategies

Swing traders do not need perfect timing - to buy at the bottom, and sell at the top of price oscillations. Small consistent earnings that involve strict money management rules can compound returns significantly.

Most important is to understand that there is no foolproof mathematical model or algorithm that will always work so only use them as research tools not decision making engines.



bse etf

BSE Codes Equity ETF’s
Equity ETFs
8 Benchmark Nifty BeES NIFTYBEES 590103
9 Benchmark Junior Nifty BeES JUNIORBEES 590104
10 Benchmark Bank BeES BANKBEES 590106
11 Benchmark Benchmark Mutual Fund – PSU Bank Benchmark ETF PSUBNKBEES 590108
12 Benchmark Benchmark Mutual Fund – Shariah Benchmark ETF SHARIABEES 590109
13 ICICI Prudential SENSEX Prudential ICICI ETF SPIcE(Sensex-ETF) 555555
14 Kotak Kotak Mahindra Mutual Fund – Kotak PSU Bank ETF KOTAK PSU BK 590107
15 Kotak Kotak Mahindra Mutual Fund – Kotak Sensex ETF Kotak Sensex –ETF 532985
16 Quantum Quantum Index Fund -ETF QUANTUM INDX 590110
17 Reliance Reliance Mutual Fund -Banking ETF REL BANK ETF 590105
18 UTI S&P CNX NIFTY UTI NOTIONAL DEPOSITORY RECIEPTS SCHEME (SUNDER) UTISUNDERETF 590102

Thursday, November 12, 2009

nifty

Saturday, October 24, 2009

CORRECTION

The approach is simple; first sell the half of your position if share price hits the low of last 10 trading days, and another half if it hits the low of last twenty days.

Fine, that was for your accumulated profit position on a long term trend. But what if you have identified a long term trend and you wants to initiate a position in it. A step wise approach will look like this:

Initiate the trade with a stop loss at the most recent support level. If you don’t get stopped out in the first instance itself, and the stock starts rising, convert the stop loss to the low of preceding 10 days if this 10-days low is above the first stop loss. (It is quite possible that it may take some days before your 10-days low get above your entry price. You have to remain patient if the trend is intact, and the movement is slow) As the trend continues, and 20-days low also comes above your entry price, just keep tracking your preceding 10-day and 20-day lows. On the signs of any correction, sell half of the position at the 10-days low stop and the remaining half at the 20-days low stop.

All that was for long term trend based position! But if you have initiated a position that is on short term, and is based on any event or news, save your profits by “Two and Four Low” approach. Sell half of your position, if price comes to last two days low stop, and sell another half if it comes to last four days low stop.

Last but not the least, a very important tip for you!

At sometimes, you get out of the winning trade on account of market correction, only to see the market rebounding and going higher. That’s painful if you are clueless whether to enter the trade again, if the trend is revived. There are two ways by which you can make the entry. First, if the stock reaches the next new high, get in with the stop loss at the low of the last three days or the most recent support level, whichever is higher. OR second, buy if the RSI changes from 30 or below and crosses 50, placing the stop loss at the three-day low.

Sunday, October 11, 2009

day trading

Nifty has closed below 5 week MA indicating weakness.Trend line support around 4910
Weekly Pivot level 4970

Weekly Support:4885 4825

Weekly Resistance:5041 5137

Weekly Calls

IDBI buy with a sl of126.50 tgt 132 136

TATA STEEL above 542 tgt 551 558 564 572 sl530

SUZLON Buy above 87.3 for tgt of 88 91 95 Better buy 95 CEaround1.8 exit near 2.5